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Why caution reigns in the West over Egypt

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“Let freedom reign” might be more than a rhetorical tool when it comes to Egypt. The Egyptian people are taking to the streets in a protest against the Mubarak regime. Democracy is a valve for anger but in Egypt this valve has been welded shut for too long. Yet Western leaders are rightly cautious; revolutions spark unpredictable outcomes.

What is happening in Egypt is a revolution. Just because this started with secular Egyptians does not mean that it cannot end with an extremist government in power. History has taught us that revolutions promise to bring the best of all worlds but tend to end in tyranny and oppression as revolutionary leaders turn into the very people they overthrew.

The West cannot be seen to intervene too heavily in Egypt. The Egyptian people want a leadership that responds to their demands, and their opinion of the West could worsen if Western leaders are seen to be exercising undue influence. The response by Britain and the US is the correct response: emphasise the need for democracy, fundamental human rights and a stable and orderly transition.

In order for us not to overplay our hand, we need to recognise that the base of anger in Egypt is an oppressive government that could not deliver prosperity. To create a more stable democracy, the Egyptian people need to have jobs and hope for a better future. People tend not to act violently if they believe they have a bright future ahead of them.

Western leaders should now look to invest heavily into Egypt and bring in other Arab and Asian nations to help with the heavy (particularly financial) lifting. Instability in Egypt has already spread to Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The Arab region is too important to world trade (oil reserves, and the Suez Canal which sees 8% of world trade going through it) to be allowed to either continue as is, or to hurtle out of control.

Any new government must begin building the institutions of democracy that we take for granted in the West. We in have been lucky; our democracy grew on a liberal tradition. Democracy with different traditions might not be very liberal at all. Therefore, we must devote time and effort in helping any Egyptian Government to build the authoritative and respectable institutions that can deliver stable democratic system.

Finally, we need to confront the issue of minority rights. This revolution can be a great thing for bringing Muslim and Coptic Christians together in building a better future. However, it can also mean that built up anger and intolerance might be “let off the leash”. The massacre of Coptic Christians celebrating Orthodox Christmas shows how unstable this part of the world is. If we have learnt from the violence in Iraq or in the former Yugoslavia, then the West has an obligation to work with any transition government to protect minority rights and to enforce the law impartially.

I believe that there is a great opportunity for the Middle East to emerge into a period of democracy and political freedom. However, the road to get there is fraught with danger and difficulty. Western leaders have acted properly but the real test has only begun; we need to balance stability with freedom in a land whose people have been bottled up for too long. We need more than platitudes going forward; investment in money and time is needed to help Egypt move to a better and more prosperous future.

The post Why caution reigns in the West over Egypt appeared first on TRG.


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